Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by 14 points among likely New York voters, improving on President Joe Biden’s eight-point lead from earlier this summer, according to a Siena College poll released Tuesday.
In the first time Harris has been included in a Siena poll against Trump, the vice president leads 53-39%, the poll found. In a six-way election horse race, Harris leads Trump 49-37%, with 7% for Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and 4% for the other three minor party candidates.
"Voters who had previously said that they were either not going to vote, or were going to vote for a third-party candidate have suddenly come back to Harris — not dramatically, but enough,"Siena College Research Institute pollster Steve Greenberg toldSpectrum News 1on Tuesday. "[And] where's that pickup? Democrats, New York City voters, downstate suburban voters, Black voters."
Harris has a 53-43% favorability rating, up from 42-47% in October 2023. Trump’s favorability rating is 39-59%, which is little changed from June, according to the poll.
Greenberg said the results show a shift in the presidential race with renewed energy for Democratic candidates.
Voters also favor Democrats for Congress over Republicans, 52-37%, little changed from 50-35% in June, according to the poll.
“The landscape has changed since the last Siena College poll. The change at the top of the Democratic ticket has had a noticeable, while not dramatic, effect on the horserace,” Greenberg said in a prepared statement earlier Tuesday. “Harris has the support of 86% of Democrats, up from the 75% support Biden had in June. And while independent voters support Trump over Harris 47-40%, they supported Trump over Biden 45-28%. Harris leads with Black voters 81-11%, up from Biden’s 59-29% lead in June.”
Greenberg also said the gender gap has widened among New York voters with Harris replacing Biden, the poll found.
“Currently Harris leads with women by 34 points, 64-30%, up from Biden’s 51-33%, or 18-point lead. The race moved far less with men, who favor Trump over Harris 49-43%, compared to the 46-42% lead men gave Trump in June,” Greenberg said. “Interestingly, it wasn’t young voters that moved the needle. Among voters under 35, Harris leads 49-34%, down a little from the 51-32% lead Biden had in June. Harris’ big pickup was among voters 35-54, who favor her 54-40%, after backing Trump 44-41% over Biden in June.”
New York has voted for the Democratic presidential candidate in every election since 1988.
According to the poll, a strong majority of voters, 74-23%, say this is the most important election of their lifetime, with more than three-quarters of Democrats (79%) and Republicans (77%) believing that and nearly two-thirds, or 65%, of independents.
Regarding other elections in New York this year, U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand holds a 23-point lead over her Republican opponent, former NYPD Detective Mike Sapraicone, in her bid for fourth term.
“With only 13 weeks until election day, Gillibrand is in strong position to win her fourth election to the United States Senate," Greenberg said. "She leads Sapraicone, her Republican opponent, 56-33%. She won re-election in 2018 with a 34-point victory over her then little-known Republican opponent."
The Long Island Republican is largely unknown to New York's electorate as Gillibrand runs for a fourth term, or full six-year term for the third time.
But notably, over a quarter of voters responded they're not familiar with Gillibrand, either, who has been a senator since 2009.
"It's a little odd for somebody who's won statewide office in a prominent role to have such a high, 'Don't know' or 'No opinion,' [result]," Greenberg said.
But Gillibrand's favorability rating with likely New York voters is 40-33%.
Voters in November will also decide the fate of a constitutional amendment known as the Equal Rights Amendment, which adds anti-discrimination provisions to the state Constitution to protect abortion rights. New York voters support the measure by a strong 68-23% margin, the poll found. Democrats support it 89-7%; while independents support it 64-23% and Republicans oppose the amendment, 55-32%.
But the majority of New York voters are most concerned about issues that are typical Republican talking points, with 82% perplexed by the high cost of living and 71% preoccupied with the lack of affordable housing. Meanwhile, 54% of voters who responded believe crime has worsened in the state over the last year, with 64% concerned about the influx of migrants to the state.
Political analysts say Democrats can't rely on campaigning on reproductive rights to win New York's competitive congressional seats.
"The abortion message is not going to work as well as it has before, and particularly in the New York City suburbs," political consultant Hank Steinkopf said Tuesday. "Why? People are worried that the migrants are going to spill over into Nassau, Suffolk County and portions of Westchester. They're concerned about the future. They're worried about crime and they want to be safe."
Voters support banning smartphones in classrooms 60-32%, the poll found, withwith 58% of Democrats and Republicans both backing the proposal.
Greenberg said it's the first time in the poll's history that Republicans and Democrats agree on an issue down to the percentage point.
The poll shows Gov. Kathy Hochul's favorability rating with New Yorkers is largely unchanged at 39-50% — similar to 38-49% in June. Her job approval rating is 46-49%, up slightly from this spring.
The poll was conducted between July 28 and Aug. 1 among 1,199 registered, likely voters in New York. It has a margin of error of 4 percentage points.
